NIAID CEIRR Risk Assessment Pipeline (RAP)

The CEIRR Risk Assessment Pipeline (RAP) brings together investigators across the CEIRR Network to evaluate the risk of influenza viruses through an integrated, evidence-based approach. By combining animal surveillance with phenotypic analysis, phylodynamic investigation, and computational modeling, the RAP generates the coordinated data needed to understand how viruses emerge, evolve, and pose risks to animal and human health. This collaborative structure allows CEIRR RAP to support outbreak preparedness, inform public health decision-making, and contribute data that strengthen broader risk assessment efforts at the national level.

RAP Sub-groups

The CEIRR RAP is organized into four interconnected sub-groups that create a more complete picture of influenza risk. Drawing on expertise across surveillance, laboratory science, and computational analysis, these teams generate complementary data on viral spread, evolution, host range, and biological traits.

Domestic Animal Surveillance

The Domestic Animal Surveillance sub-group examines influenza viruses in animals that live in close contact with people or agricultural systems, where spillover events can have major public health consequences. Their work is especially important in species such as swine, poultry, and now dairy cattle, where surveillance can directly inform response strategies and risk mitigation efforts.

Wild Animal Surveillance

The Wild Animal Surveillance sub-group focuses on identifying and tracking viruses circulating in free-living animal populations, especially species that serve as reservoirs or intermediate hosts. By studying how viruses move through wild birds and other animals, this group helps define the ecological context in which new threats emerge. 

Phylodynamics and Computational Modeling

The Phylodynamics and Computational Modeling sub-group uses genetic sequence data and epidemiologic methods to understand how viruses evolve, spread, and adapt across hosts and settings. By analyzing viral lineages and modeling transmission patterns, this team helps place emerging strains into a broader evolutionary and public health context. 

Phenotypic Characterization

The Phenotypic Characterization sub-group investigates how viruses behave biologically, including traits that may influence disease severity, host adaptation, transmissibility, immune escape, and response to treatment. Through laboratory experiments, this group tests whether viruses circulating in nature are acquiring characteristics associated with greater risk to humans or animals. 

RAP Infographic

“CEIRR Infobyte: Risk Assessment Pipeline” Infobyte. To view a full-size PDF version, click the image above.

RAP Data Packages

TitleDescriptionLink
Assessment of the Pandemic Potential of H9N2 B4.7.2 and B4.7.4 Influenza A VirusesPublished February 13th, 2026Download PDF
Assessment of the Pandemic Potential of 2.3.4.4b H5N1 Influenza Viruses of the D1.1 genotypePublished July 7th, 2025Download PDF
Assessment of the Pandemic Potential of Swine A(H1) 1B.2 Influenza VirusesPublished January 10th, 2025Download PDF
Assessment of the Pandemic Potential of 2.3.4.4b H5N1 Influenza VirusesPublished November 14th, 2024Download PDF